GOP REALIZING OBAMA WILL BE TOUGH TO BEAT – AT 10:14 A.M. ET:  Although that shouldn't be surprising.  Incumbent presidents come with built-in advantages, but some have in fact been beaten, as we'ver pointed out here before.  The names Jimmah Carter and George H.W. Bush come to mind.

But the GOP is facing reality.  From The Politico:

Just four months after posting historic election gains, Republicans are experiencing a reality check about 2012: President Barack Obama is going to be a lot tougher to defeat than he looked late last year.

Having gone from despondency in 2008 to euphoria last November, a more sober GOP is wincing in the light of day as they consider just how difficult unseating an incumbent president with a massive warchest is going to be, even with a still-dismal economy.

“I consider him a favorite, albeit a slight favorite,” said former George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove. “Republicans underestimate President Obama at their own peril.”

Much of the GOP realism is rooted in a long-standing truism of American politics – that absent a major crisis of confidence, it’s highly difficult to defeat a sitting president.

COMMENT:  I also believe that the GOP still does not understand the importance of press bias in presidential elections.  Putting it bluntly, the media elected Barack Obama.  Even Evan Thomas of Newsweek said that press bias would have to be worth eight points or so.

The bias was bad in 2008.  It will be worse in 2012 because the press now knows it can get away with it, with no penalty.  Republicans should study how Ronald Reagan spoke over the heads of the reporters, and directly to the American people.  It was one of the traits that led him to victory.  Unless the GOP candidate in 2012 has that ability, he or she will be at a tremendous, possibly fatal disadvantage.

February 28, 2011